Track record

What is graded. Every +EV price the board surfaced is written to the ledger the moment it is shown, before the game is played — so the population settled here is exactly the population users saw. Only finished games appear; nothing is added or removed after the fact, and losers cannot be dropped.

One market, one bet. The same wager offered at several books — CIN +1.5 at eight sportsbooks — is one bet with one outcome, and it counts once, settled at the best price the board showed (the copy the board itself ranked first; taking the best number is the product). Two expressionsof one market collapse the same way: Over 9.5 and Over 10 on the same game are one opinion about one total, and the earlier claim is the one that counts. Otherwise a single game could swing the record several bets' worth on what is really one call. Every per-book price is still recorded and graded: the by-book split below and the CSV export stay at the per-price level, so this headline can be recomputed from the raw rows.

Never against ourselves.Both sides of one market cannot be better than fair at the same time — the two prices' implied probabilities sum to about 100% — so a “value” reading against a side already claimed on a game means the reference moved, not that a second edge appeared. Once a market is claimed, nothing else on it is surfaced for that game: not the other side, and not another line. This deliberately gives up middles; building middles is a different job from finding one price worth taking. Rows recorded before this rule existed remain in the ledger — nothing is removed after the fact.

Pricing. Each bet risks one unit and settles at the exact American price the board displayed — a +140 winner returns 1.40u. Never a flat −110 assumption: the entire claim is that we found a better number, and normalising prices would erase the thing being measured.

Fair, and the reference.“Fair” is the de-vigged two-way price at Pinnacle — a low-margin, high-limit book whose price is the best cheap estimate of true probability. Where Pinnacle hasn't priced an event, the lowest-hold of a small consensus set stands in, and those bets are marked and graded separately: a consensus-referenced edge is weaker evidence.

Denominators. Pushes are excluded from both hit rate and ROI. Hit rate is hits ÷ (hits + misses); ROI is net units ÷ settled bets. There is no single break-even hit rate — every bet carries its own price, which is why return, not hit rate, is the number to judge.

Lines.Spread lines are shown from the picked side's perspective — “TOR +1.5” is Toronto's own line. A different line is a different bet and is never compared or graded across lines.

Expected value is an expectation, not a promise; variance dominates small samples. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is market research, not financial advice.